Tips for Betting on the United States Election in 2024

Kyle Oberholzer
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Recommended wagers 

With odds of 1.88 to 1, bet on the Republican Party to win the presidency. (Betfair) At 32.0, bet on Elizabeth Warren to win the Democratic nomination. (Betfair) Amy Klobuchar is the Democratic candidate with a 50.0 percent chance of winning (Betfair) 

Despite the fact that the championship will not be held for another 33 months, activity in the world’s largest betting market is picking up.¬†

Trump and Hillary Clinton set the previous all-time record for the amount of money traded on Betfair in 2016, and it was surpassed by a factor of eight when Donald Trump and Joe Biden faced off in 2020. 

A new record is likely to be set in the year 2024 

There is a distinct sense that this has happened before. According to BetOnline’s Sportsbook, Trump is by far their greatest liability, and he is currently bringing in money for Clinton. A rematch between Trump and Biden in 2020 is also the most likely scenario, with a probability of 4.5. It would be the first rematch between Biden and Trump in 68 years.¬†

A rematch is so unusual that it has never happened before

If this happens, it will be the first time since Dwight Eisenhower defeated Adlai Stevenson for the second time and won the election in 1956. Before that, in 1900, William McKinley was re-elected president, this time against William Jennings Bryan. It’s worth noting that these elections came before another rematch, in which Grover Cleveland defeated Benjamin Harrison after losing to him in 1888.¬†

At this point, there is a compelling case for a rematch. Both Biden and Trump have made it clear that they intend to run for office again. Despite widespread skepticism about Biden due to his advanced age and poor academic performance, if he resigns, he would be the first incumbent not to seek re-election since Lyndon Johnson in 1968. 

Whatever candidate you want to back, Betfair is the place to go for the best odds. Trump received a score of 4.6 during their conversation, while Biden received a score of 6.6. 

If you were to buy either option on PredictIt, the fixed odds would be 4.2 and 3.3, respectively. These odds are available at BetOnline and are listed as 5.25 and 3.5, respectively. So, should we rely on what is obvious? In terms of myself, I have reservations. 

It is simply far too early in the cycle to make reliable assumptions. Both men’s reputations are at risk of being harmed by what could and will happen in the future. Other contenders will benefit from increased visibility. The primaries will not take place for another two years, and most candidates will not declare their candidacy until 2023.¬†

Bets that can be made on potential candidates for public office 

We can bet on whether or not the candidates will appear, as well as when they will declare their candidacy. Concerning whether Trump will submit a nomination paper before 2023, the PredictIt trading line is now around 30 cents for Yes and 70 cents for No. 

In a similar vein, BetOnline is giving Trump 3.25 chances to win this year, while giving him 1.48 chances to win the first round of the caucuses or the opening ballot. Furthermore, they have a diverse selection of politicians and celebrities available for the latter market. 

Hillary Clinton currently has a 4.0 rating to run for president, the same as actor Dwayne Johnson. “The Rock” has already expressed interest in racing, and given how 2024 is shaping up, it may be the ideal year for someone who is not involved in politics.¬†

Tucker Carlson, Fox News CEO, has odds of 5.0, and Ivanka Trump, Donald Trump’s daughter and adviser, has odds of 8.0. Oprah Winfrey has a probability of 67.0, making her a true longshot.¬†

Biden is facing significant challenges

Let’s put those more outlandish possibilities aside for a moment and focus on the rematch, specifically whether or not it will take place and who will win if it does.¬†

Joe Biden, in my opinion, still has a long way to go before achieving his goal. His approval rating is at an all-time low, and no progress has been made on the legislative agenda. He is very likely to lose in the House of Representatives in the midterm elections and then be brought down by Republican investigations. 

There will be a great deal of pressure as well as a strong desire to retire. He is very likely to face the most significant opposition from within his own party. The fact that Kamala Harris appears to be an even worse candidate does not change the fact that she is in a difficult position right now. There will be a larger crowd. I previously predicted on these pages that Pete Buttigieg would win, and I have since cashed in the bet for a profit at a 20-point lower price. 

Elizabeth Warren and Amy Klobuchar are two other Democrats who should be considered for the party’s presidential nomination. On Betfair, their odds for the party nomination are 32.0 and 50.0, respectively.¬†

Michelle Obama (22.0) will draw bets, but there is no evidence that she will run for office at this time

Whoever they choose will face a difficult task in maintaining the coalition of voters who supported Biden in his race against Trump. The Republicans currently have 1.88 odds of regaining the presidency, while PredictIt has 54 cents. My recommendation is to back the Republicans. 

The Republican Party is in great shape, but its members oppose Trump 

Regardless, I do not recommend voting for Donald Trump. Having his name on the ballot is the Democrats’ best chance. If he runs, it is possible that he will persuade Biden to participate in the rematch. It’s debatable whether Republicans will accept this reality, but there are still a lot of things that could go wrong with Trump’s re-election campaign.¬†

First and foremost, his enormous potential for legal trouble

The attorney general of New York, Letitia James, stated that her office’s investigation of the Trump Organization discovered evidence of massive fraud, that subpoenas were issued, and that Eric Trump had invoked his right to remain silent more than 500 times.¬†

This investigation is being conducted in conjunction with an ongoing criminal investigation in Manhattan. The selection of grand juries has been completed for some time, and charges are still very likely to be brought. 

How to Place Your Bets on Trump’s Indictment¬†

There is also the ongoing investigation into the January 6 uprising, Trump’s role in it, and other attempts to influence the election results.¬†

Georgia is investigating his recorded and widely publicized appeal, and the state’s secretary of state has been directed to locate 11,000 votes. The most recent revelations of bogus votes cast in seven different states, ostensibly to defraud the Electoral College, could lead to criminal prosecution.¬†

This New York Times article provides a link to all of the investigations currently being conducted into Trump. Another betting market is available here. Will Trump be charged with a crime in 2022? 

BetOnline offers a betting line of 2.0 for yes and 1.71 for no. Predict It established a more expedited timeline, with an indictment before April 1 trading for about 14 cents. 

Could Trump’s grip on the Republican Party be slipping?¬†

Threats of this magnitude would bring down any political candidate at any time in history, but Trump has repeatedly demonstrated his ability to defy conventional wisdom. Nonetheless, I believe Republicans would be insane to take such a risk. 

There will be multiple candidate head-to-head poll slates at roughly the same time the following year. I have no doubt that Donald Trump will perform significantly worse than the other Republican candidates. A simple victory is something Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley may consider, and Donald Trump may even join the Democrats. 

There will almost certainly be more conflict within the organization. Some of his most ardent supporters, including Alex Jones, have turned against him and his administration. 

By expressing support for COVID vaccinations, Trump has chosen to go to war with a large portion of his support base. Even more surprising, he praised China in a recent interview with conservative activist Candace Owens, who later chastised him for being too old to understand the issues at hand. 

Finally, I don’t believe Trump supporters have considered the dynamics of a campaign in 2024. Whether or not he is indicted, he can continue to speak publicly about the electoral college rigging.¬†

Trump refused to accept the results of the election in both 2016 and 2020, but most analysts made the mistake of not taking him at his word. They will not make the same mistake again as a result of what happened on January 6. 

If he runs for president, the Republican Party will be under intense pressure to demonstrate its commitment to democracy throughout 2024 in order to avoid turmoil and, possibly, civil war. This is not a winning appearance or strategy.